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Saturday, October 28, 2006
Mid-term elections are almost here, and the nation holds its collective breath, waiting for the Karl Rove-directed event that will somehow stem the overwhelming Democratic tide, if not actually save the House for the GOP.
Some might point to Wednesday's decision in New Jersey, affording same-sex couples the same rights as heterosexual ones, and wonder if this was the event that would boost the Republicans.
Well, yes, and no.
Yes, in the sense that the timing of this absolutely correct judgment will cost the Democrats any chance of taking the Senate back. It's not going to happen. Nothing fires up Crazy Base World like gays destroying the institution of marriage, and President Bush was out on the campaign trail flogging the ruling the very next day. Predictable? You bet. Pathetic? Absolutely. Effective? Bank on it. I had predicted that the Democrats would make a net gain in the House of 28-30 seats, but now I think they'll be lucky to get 20. They need fifteen to take a majority, and it's going to be close.
As for "no," I don't think this is the shocker we've been waiting for. I had mentioned previously that two US Navy carrier groups have steamed into the Persian Gulf, waiting to rain fire down on Iran. This would certainly provide the president's party with a boost, but the backlash might be a bit too severe long term, given the distaste that the American public have developed for war in the region.
What will save the GOP next month? I'll give you some hints:
Worse than Hitler.
Gassed his own people.
Tried to kill my daddy.
That's right, kids! Saddam Hussein will save the day. How?
American advisers have long been in Iraq to advise and direct Saddam's tribunal. These advisers quite naturally were appointed by the Bush administration, as one might expect.
I am suddenly under the impression that the death sentence for Saddam will be handed down on Sunday, November 5th. The news will appear in American newspapers on Monday, November 6th.
The sentence was not expected much before the end of the year, if then. But signs are beginning to point toward things speeding up, which is decidedly convenient for the party in charge who is so very despised by an angry electorate.
Iraq has been an ongoing drag for the Republicans, but there have been three positive spikes in approval due to:
1) Saddam's capture
2) Purple-finger election
3) Zarqawi's death
We like results here in Bush Country, and all three of those events were deliciously tangible, especially in a war which seems to have no discernible plan, and appears to be resulting only in losses of life, money and American prestige. When the video of a dictator being sentenced to death hits American airwaves come November 6th, there will be another short-lived spike in approval for the quagmire in Iraq, and close races will be tipped to the right. As I said earlier, I'm not banking on Democrats clearing twenty seats gained in the House as of right now, what with the New Jersey ruling.
If Saddam receives sentence on November 5, the Republicans will hang on to the House, as well as the Senate.
The joyous spike will not last long, as the American body count will sober us up in a big hurry, but it will have lasted long enough to affect the only thing that matters to Republicans: The balance of power.
This country, given legislation like the so-called Patriot Act, and the Military Commissions Act of 2006 is quite literally teetering on the brink of abandoning democracy in favor of autocratic rule by religious fundamentalists. I worry what another two years of unchecked Executive branch power may result in permanent ruination of what has been the greatest nation in the history of the world.
This election is vitally important to those of us who believe that the US Constitution and the Bill of Rights are the most important documents ever written in the history of mankind. 2006, and the next three or four elections will be the last chances for the people of this country to save it before the pendulum has swung so far to the right that it breaks off completely.
The republic can be saved. It must be saved. Keep your eye on November 5th, and vote early on November 7th. The smart money is on long lines in opposition districts, so dress warm, bring an umbrella, and never forget, that bastard Saddam has a date with the noose.
posted at 9:06 PM
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