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Friday, August 07, 2009
"Unlikely to serve full term"

The Italian news service, ADNKronos, published an analysis of the situation in Iran. Ali Ansari from the London-based think tank Chatham House, and co-director of the Institute of Iranian Studies at St. Andrews University in Scotland told AKI:

"I would not want to predict a revolution but I definitely do not think Ahmadinejad will fulfill his full term."

Government opponents pledged to continue their protests after the swearing in of Ahmadinejad this week and there is speculation that the government may be unable to repress the simmering opposition, particularly as the economy is weak.

"I think they are in a very difficult position and unless ultimately they find some compromise, I think they will have serious problems," said Ansari.

"I mean the underlying thing you have to bear in mind about Ahmadinejad is he is taking over a country whose political and economic health is not good. So if you wait long enough, the economy will basically bring him down."

Suzanne Maloney, a senior fellow at the Saban Center for Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution in Washington, also gave insight:

"The firebrand president's allies among the political elite distrust him profoundly, his cabinet is in shambles, and conservative rivals in the parliament have threatened a no-confidence vote," said Maloney, in a report published this week.

A hundred people are facing trial in Tehran on various charges, including conspiracy, rioting and vandalism allegedly committed during the street protests after the poll.

Defeated opposition presidential candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi and Iran's former reformist president Mohammad Khatami, have denounced the hearings, that were due to resume on Saturday.

"Though battered and detained, the opposition remains energised and appears to be prepared to wage a long-term mutiny against the regime's effort to stifle any dissent," said Maloney.

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